CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$NFLX
tech_mega · convergence -4 · conviction WATCH
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Why $NFLX?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $12.56B (+13.4% YoY)
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $3.40B (+8.8% YoY)
Net Margin (CY2026Q3) : 28.5%
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 8 convergent signals fired: github, macro, orphan_lean, congress, oge_exec
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-4 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, tech_mega-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
MSFT via tech_mega r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 7)
META via tech_mega r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 4)
QQQ via tech_mega r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 1)
CRM via tech_mega r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 0)
XLK via tech_mega r=+0.00 intra-sector (score -2)
AAPL via tech_mega r=+0.00 intra-sector (score -3)
Signals Firing
github macro orphan_lean congress oge_exec auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-22 sec_top_gappers +1.1% -1.8% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.1% -1.8% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_gappers +3.8% +3.1% ✓ hit 2026-10-21 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.8% +3.1% ✓ hit 2026-10-20 sec_top_gappers -2.3% -5.3% — 2026-10-20 sec_top_moat_emerging -2.3% -5.3% —
Lifetime: 2/6 wins · hit-rate 33.3% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket MSFT via tech_mega · score 7 META via tech_mega · score 4 QQQ via tech_mega · score 1 CRM via tech_mega · score 0 XLK via tech_mega · score -2 AAPL via tech_mega · score -3
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