CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-09
$PSQL
tech · convergence -1 · conviction WATCH
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Why $PSQL?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -1 (7 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 7 convergent signals fired: auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment, auto_macro_durable_goods, auto_macro_fx_rates
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-1 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, tech-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
AORT via biotech r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 24)
ONCO via biotech r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 20)
HYSR via semis r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 13)
INDI via semis r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 13)
AVEX via industrials r=+0.75 sympathetic (score 23)
RAIL via industrials r=+0.75 sympathetic (score 23)
Signals Firing
auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_options_gex auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-09-28 sec_top_gappers -1.2% -8.4% — 2026-09-28 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.2% -8.4% — 2026-09-24 sec_top_gappers -0.7% -4.8% — 2026-09-24 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.7% -4.8% — 2026-09-18 sec_top_gappers +2.1% -4.3% ✓ hit 2026-09-18 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.1% -4.3% ✓ hit 2026-09-14 sec_top_gappers -3.0% -6.5% — 2026-09-14 sec_top_moat_emerging -3.0% -6.5% — 2026-09-11 sec_top_gappers +5.8% +4.1% ✓ hit 2026-09-11 sec_top_moat_emerging +5.8% +4.1% ✓ hit 2026-09-10 sec_top_gappers +4.6% +2.4% ✓ hit 2026-09-10 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.6% +2.4% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 6/12 wins · hit-rate 50.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket AORT via biotech · score 24 ONCO via biotech · score 20 HYSR via semis · score 13 INDI via semis · score 13 AVEX via industrials · score 23 RAIL via industrials · score 23
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