CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-03
$RIG
materials · convergence 15 · conviction WATCH
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Why $RIG?
Quantitative
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $170.0M (+118.1% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 14 convergent signals fired: merger, finra_short, stocktwits, finra_regsho, xbrl_ni
Risks
Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk : Borrow rate 6.0%, distress score 30
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Deal break risk : Antitrust/regulatory review or counterparty pullout would unwind the spread
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
LCII via consumer r=+0.88 sympathetic (score 26)
MOD via consumer r=+0.88 sympathetic (score 26)
HLNE via financials r=+0.80 sympathetic (score 30)
PURR via financials r=+0.80 sympathetic (score 28)
MPLX via energy r=-0.71 divergent (score 26)
IMSR via energy r=-0.71 divergent (score 7)
Signals Firing
merger finra_short stocktwits finra_regsho xbrl_ni congress contract m_proxy ftd auto_merger_radar auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_treasury_fiscal
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-21 sec_top_gappers +1.2% +0.7% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.2% +0.7% — 2026-10-16 sec_top_gappers +6.4% +4.8% ✓ hit 2026-10-16 sec_top_moat_emerging +6.4% +4.8% ✓ hit 2026-10-15 sec_top_gappers +4.0% +2.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-15 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.0% +2.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-09 sec_top_gappers +3.4% +1.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-09 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.4% +1.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-02 sec_top_gappers +8.5% +6.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-02 sec_top_moat_emerging +8.5% +6.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-01 sec_top_gappers -0.4% -1.3% — 2026-10-01 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.4% -1.3% —
Lifetime: 8/12 wins · hit-rate 66.7% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket LCII via consumer · score 26 MOD via consumer · score 26 HLNE via financials · score 30 PURR via financials · score 28 MPLX via energy · score 26 IMSR via energy · score 7
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