CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-13
$STLA
consumer · convergence 6 · conviction WATCH
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Why $STLA?
Quantitative
Convergence score : 6 (8 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 8 convergent signals fired: finra_short, finra_regsho, ftd, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia
Risks
Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk : Borrow rate 6.0%, distress score 30
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
AIRE via real_estate r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 9)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 8)
HON via industrials r=+0.93 sympathetic (score 22)
CJMB via industrials r=+0.93 sympathetic (score 17)
PCT via materials r=+0.91 sympathetic (score 19)
USAS via materials r=+0.91 sympathetic (score 19)
Signals Firing
finra_short finra_regsho ftd auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_wiki_pageviews
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-11 sec_top_gappers -1.9% -6.1% — 2026-11-11 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.9% -6.1% — 2026-11-10 sec_top_gappers -1.2% -3.5% — 2026-11-10 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.2% -3.5% — 2026-11-05 sec_top_gappers +1.8% -0.2% — 2026-11-05 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.8% -0.2% — 2026-10-28 sec_top_gappers +1.9% +0.4% — 2026-10-28 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.9% +0.4% — 2026-10-16 sec_top_gappers -0.9% -1.8% — 2026-10-16 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.9% -1.8% — 2026-10-15 sec_top_gappers +3.4% +0.5% ✓ hit 2026-10-15 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.4% +0.5% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 4/16 wins · hit-rate 25.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket AIRE via real_estate · score 9 AEI via real_estate · score 8 HON via industrials · score 22 CJMB via industrials · score 17 PCT via materials · score 19 USAS via materials · score 19
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