CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-09
$SVM
materials · convergence -3 · conviction WATCH
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Why $SVM?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -3 (9 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 9 convergent signals fired: finra_short, gap, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment
Risks
Financial restatement : 1 restatement filing(s); investor confidence risk
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
VST via utilities r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 22)
NRG via utilities r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 17)
ACRE via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 27)
NTST via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 25)
MOD via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 23)
VSA via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 19)
Signals Firing
finra_short gap auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_options_gex auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-04 sec_top_gappers +3.2% -3.5% ✓ hit 2026-11-04 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.2% -3.5% ✓ hit 2026-10-20 sec_top_gappers +1.3% +1.1% — 2026-10-20 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.3% +1.1% — 2026-10-08 sec_top_gappers +2.9% +1.7% ✓ hit 2026-10-08 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.9% +1.7% ✓ hit 2026-10-05 sec_top_gappers +0.7% -0.4% — 2026-10-05 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.7% -0.4% — 2026-09-30 sec_top_gappers +1.3% -0.4% — 2026-09-30 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.3% -0.4% — 2026-09-29 sec_top_gappers +1.5% -1.5% — 2026-09-29 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.5% -1.5% —
Lifetime: 4/20 wins · hit-rate 20.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket VST via utilities · score 22 NRG via utilities · score 17 ACRE via financials · score 27 NTST via financials · score 25 MOD via consumer · score 23 VSA via consumer · score 19
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