CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-09
$TFPM
financials · convergence 7 · conviction WATCH
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Why $TFPM?
Quantitative
Convergence score : 7 (10 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 10 convergent signals fired: sc13d, fed_overlay, sector_overlay, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia
Risks
Material agreement / debt arrangement : plan_of_arrangement
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, financials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
MOD via consumer r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 23)
VSA via consumer r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 19)
AGNT via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 18)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 14)
SLVM via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 24)
EP via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 23)
Signals Firing
sc13d fed_overlay sector_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_options_gex auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-04 sec_top_gappers +4.3% +2.2% ✓ hit 2026-11-04 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.3% +2.2% ✓ hit 2026-10-07 sec_top_gappers +2.0% +1.6% — 2026-10-07 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.0% +1.6% —
Lifetime: 2/4 wins · hit-rate 50.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket MOD via consumer · score 23 VSA via consumer · score 19 AGNT via real_estate · score 18 AEI via real_estate · score 14 SLVM via materials · score 24 EP via materials · score 23
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