CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-12
$VCIG
tech · convergence -9 · conviction WATCH
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Why $VCIG?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -9 (5 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 5 convergent signals fired: ftd, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-9 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, tech-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
NVDA via semis r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 15)
CBRS via semis r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 5)
LUNR via industrials r=+0.83 sympathetic (score 26)
IBP via industrials r=+0.83 sympathetic (score 17)
MGTX via biotech r=+0.78 sympathetic (score 25)
TSHA via biotech r=+0.78 sympathetic (score 23)
Signals Firing
ftd auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-04 sec_top_gappers +21.9% +10.2% ✓ hit 2026-11-04 sec_top_moat_emerging +21.9% +10.2% ✓ hit 2026-11-03 sec_top_gappers +1.1% -5.6% — 2026-11-03 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.1% -5.6% — 2026-10-29 sec_top_gappers -8.2% -13.8% — 2026-10-29 sec_top_moat_emerging -8.2% -13.8% — 2026-10-19 sec_top_gappers -2.9% -8.7% — 2026-10-19 sec_top_moat_emerging -2.9% -8.7% — 2026-10-06 sec_top_gappers -37.6% -45.3% — 2026-10-06 sec_top_moat_emerging -37.6% -45.3% — 2026-10-05 sec_top_gappers +59.2% +54.8% ✓ hit 2026-10-05 sec_top_moat_emerging +59.2% +54.8% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 6/20 wins · hit-rate 30.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket NVDA via semis · score 15 CBRS via semis · score 5 LUNR via industrials · score 26 IBP via industrials · score 17 MGTX via biotech · score 25 TSHA via biotech · score 23
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