What is the Catalyst Edge convergence score for AR?

As of 2026-09-18, AR has a convergence score of 24 with conviction tier ELEVATED and 10 independent signals firing. Score is a weighted aggregate across SEC filings, insider activity, options flow, dark-pool prints, short-squeeze metrics, and macro regime.

How is AR's score calculated?

Each signal contributes weighted points; weights are auto-tuned weekly against published outcome history. Full methodology + audit at https://catalystedgescanner.com/methodology/ and https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/.

How accurate has Catalyst Edge been on AR?

On the last 2 published picks featuring AR, 2 hit the +2% intraday threshold (100% hit rate). Outcomes audited daily.

Catalyst Edge · Scanner · Tickers · AR

CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-09-18

$AR

energy_natgas · convergence 24 · conviction ELEVATED

Convergence Score

Conviction

ELEVATED

Signals Firing

Track Record

2/2

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Why $AR?

AR 24 ELEVATED energy_natgas

Quantitative

Revenue (CY2026Q2): $1.56B (+20.2% YoY)

Catalysts

Multi-spoke convergence: 10 convergent signals fired: finra_short, dcf, orphan_lean, fed_overlay, auto_setup_classifier

Risks

Position-sizing discipline: Conviction ELEVATED (24 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged

Bear case

Squeeze unwind: Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical

Sympathy basket (cerebro)

RRC via energy_natgas r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 19)
UNG via energy_natgas r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 15)
BOIL via energy_natgas r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 14)
CHK via energy_natgas r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 14)
CTRA via energy_natgas r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 14)
EQT via energy_natgas r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 13)

Signals Firing

finra_shortdcforphan_leanfed_overlayauto_setup_classifierauto_macro_13f_whalesauto_macro_eia_petroleumauto_macro_sec_proxy_fightauto_macro_term_premiumauto_macro_wiki_pageviews

Each tag is a spoke that flagged this ticker today. Weights tuned weekly against published outcomes.

Pick Track Record

Date	List	Next-day max run	Next-day close	Hit +2%?
2026-07-30	sec_top_gappers	+2.5%	+2.4%	✓ hit
2026-07-30	sec_top_moat_core	+2.5%	+2.4%	✓ hit

Lifetime: 2/2 wins · hit-rate 100.0% on +2% intraday

Sympathy Basket

RRCvia energy_natgas · score 19
UNGvia energy_natgas · score 15
BOILvia energy_natgas · score 14
CHKvia energy_natgas · score 14
CTRAvia energy_natgas · score 14
EQTvia energy_natgas · score 13

Tickers Catalyst Edge tracks as moving with this name. Cross-correlation derived from sector + score-cohort proximity.

Earnings Catalyst

No recent earnings event.

Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks and its losses — see the trust report and methodology. Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.

You came here for AR. You found it after it moved, the same way everyone else did.

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Tier 1 setups touched +2% intraday 48.9% of the time across 374 tracked calls. Baseline for everything else: 40.9%. That is a +8.0 point edge, measured from the NEXT OPEN — the first price you could actually pay, not the prior close. We publish the misses too: https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/

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