CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-13
$GMEX
consumer · convergence 3 · conviction WATCH
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Why $GMEX?
Quantitative
Convergence score : 3 (8 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 8 convergent signals fired: regsho, halt, auto_regsho_threshold, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia
Risks
Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk : Borrow rate 6.0%, distress score 30
Reg SHO threshold list : On NASDAQ threshold list (2026-11-11)
Financial restatement : 1 restatement filing(s); investor confidence risk
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, consumer-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.95 sympathetic (score 17)
AGNT via real_estate r=+0.95 sympathetic (score 15)
OPTT via utilities r=+0.94 sympathetic (score 30)
EVRG via utilities r=+0.94 sympathetic (score 28)
EXPD via industrials r=+0.93 sympathetic (score 29)
ASYS via industrials r=+0.93 sympathetic (score 23)
Signals Firing
regsho halt auto_regsho_threshold auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_wiki_pageviews
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-04 sec_top_gappers +2.0% -12.4% — 2026-11-04 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.0% -12.4% — 2026-11-03 sec_top_gappers +4.3% -13.6% ✓ hit 2026-11-03 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.3% -13.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-15 sec_top_gappers -1.5% -16.2% — 2026-10-15 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.5% -16.2% — 2026-09-24 sec_top_gappers +2.8% -5.2% ✓ hit 2026-09-24 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.8% -5.2% ✓ hit 2026-09-23 sec_top_gappers -7.0% -9.8% — 2026-09-23 sec_top_moat_emerging -7.0% -9.8% —
Lifetime: 4/10 wins · hit-rate 40.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket AEI via real_estate · score 17 AGNT via real_estate · score 15 OPTT via utilities · score 30 EVRG via utilities · score 28 EXPD via industrials · score 29 ASYS via industrials · score 23
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