CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-12
$PARA
tech · convergence -10 · conviction AVOID
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Why $PARA?
Quantitative
Forward EPS estimate : $($12.20) (vs $($99.99) last yr YoY)
Market cap : $162,834
Convergence score : -10 (8 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Corporate action : warrant_exercise 2026-11-05
Risks
Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk : Borrow rate 6.0%, distress score 30
Reg SHO threshold list : On NASDAQ threshold list (2026-11-11)
Bear case
Earnings binary : Print-day moves can swing ±15% — gap risk both directions
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
NVDA via semis r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 10)
AMD via semis r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 3)
CLLS via biotech r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 14)
KRMD via biotech r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 9)
BR via industrials r=+0.94 sympathetic (score 7)
HON via industrials r=+0.94 sympathetic (score 6)
Signals Firing
earnings regsho audit_extras auto_regsho_threshold auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers +777.6% +690.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +777.6% +690.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-22 sec_top_gappers +0.2% -9.6% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.2% -9.6% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_gappers +9.8% -7.8% ✓ hit 2026-10-21 sec_top_moat_emerging +9.8% -7.8% ✓ hit 2026-10-20 sec_top_gappers +9.5% -4.9% ✓ hit 2026-10-20 sec_top_moat_emerging +9.5% -4.9% ✓ hit 2026-10-08 sec_top_gappers +0.1% -6.6% — 2026-10-08 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.1% -6.6% — 2026-10-07 sec_top_gappers +29.2% +16.2% ✓ hit 2026-10-07 sec_top_moat_emerging +29.2% +16.2% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 12/24 wins · hit-rate 50.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket NVDA via semis · score 10 AMD via semis · score 3 CLLS via biotech · score 14 KRMD via biotech · score 9 BR via industrials · score 7 HON via industrials · score 6
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