What is the Catalyst Edge convergence score for NVCR?

As of 2026-10-01, NVCR has a convergence score of -9 with conviction tier WATCH and 5 independent signals firing. Score is a weighted aggregate across SEC filings, insider activity, options flow, dark-pool prints, short-squeeze metrics, and macro regime.

How is NVCR's score calculated?

Each signal contributes weighted points; weights are auto-tuned weekly against published outcome history. Full methodology + audit at https://catalystedgescanner.com/methodology/ and https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/.

How accurate has Catalyst Edge been on NVCR?

On the last 2 published picks featuring NVCR, 2 hit the +2% intraday threshold (100% hit rate). Outcomes audited daily.

Catalyst Edge · Scanner · Tickers · NVCR

CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-10-01

$NVCR

biotech · convergence -9 · conviction WATCH

Convergence Score

-9

Conviction

WATCH

Signals Firing

Track Record

2/2

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Why $NVCR?

NVCR -9 WATCH biotech

Quantitative

Revenue (CY2026Q2): $183.6M (+15.6% YoY)
Net Income (CY2026Q2): $-15.7M (+61.0% YoY)

Catalysts

Multi-spoke convergence: 5 convergent signals fired: xbrl_ni, biotech, auto_setup_classifier, auto_macro_term_premium, auto_macro_yield_curve

Risks

Position-sizing discipline: Conviction WATCH (-9 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged

Bear case

Multiple compression: If breadth deteriorates, biotech-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis

Sympathy basket (cerebro)

VOYG via industrials r=-0.91 divergent (score 17)
LYFT via industrials r=-0.91 divergent (score 13)
CBOE via financials r=-0.84 divergent (score 22)
BAM via financials r=-0.84 divergent (score 16)
MOBX via semis r=-0.83 divergent (score 1)
MU via semis r=-0.83 divergent (score 0)

Finance Desk Verdict

Independent agent review — valuation, statement audit, and earnings read on the latest filing.

Valuation: unclearAudit: cleanDesk score: 52/100

Interesting geographic catalyst (Japan PAX decision) on a deeply discounted stock, but the bundle lacks financials, the quote is empty, and the thesis depends entirely on whether this Japan decision is a real commercial inflection or a narrow regulatory footnote — verdict requires reading the press release exhibit directly.

Bull case: A positive Japan PAX decision proves the PANOVA clinical signal translates to regulatory acceptance, establishing a geographic beachhead that de-risks global pancreatic rollout (EU, US). Pancreatic cancer addressable market dwarfs GBM. Stock at $15.95 — near multi-year lows — prices in almost no pipeline optionality, so even partial reimbursement confirmation could drive a significant multiple expansion from a depressed base.

Bear case: Japan reimbursement approvals for novel devices can be narrow and slow-ramping; a positive decision may be for a limited patient subgroup or conditional approval requiring post-market data. Core GBM revenue continues to decay with no clear floor. Operating losses are structural without a second commercial-scale indication. Zero news amplification (news_hits = 0) at scan time suggests the market has not yet reacted — either the catalyst is not as material as the headline implies, or information has not yet propagated.

Signals Firing

xbrl_nibiotechauto_setup_classifierauto_macro_term_premiumauto_macro_yield_curve

Each tag is a spoke that flagged this ticker today. Weights tuned weekly against published outcomes.

Recent SEC Filings

8-K2026-10-01T09:00:29-04:00View on EDGAR →

Pick Track Record

Date	List	Next-day max run	Next-day close	Hit +2%?
2026-09-09	sec_top_gappers	+2.8%	-1.8%	✓ hit
2026-09-09	sec_top_moat_emerging	+2.8%	-1.8%	✓ hit

Lifetime: 2/2 wins · hit-rate 100.0% on +2% intraday

Sympathy Basket

VOYGvia industrials · score 17
LYFTvia industrials · score 13
CBOEvia financials · score 22
BAMvia financials · score 16
MOBXvia semis · score 1
MUvia semis · score 0

Tickers Catalyst Edge tracks as moving with this name. Cross-correlation derived from sector + score-cohort proximity.

Earnings Catalyst

No recent earnings event.

Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks and its losses — see the trust report and methodology. Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.

You came here for NVCR. You found it after it moved, the same way everyone else did.

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Tier 1 setups touched +2% intraday 48.4% of the time across 364 tracked calls. Baseline for everything else: 39.7%. That is a +8.7 point edge, measured from the NEXT OPEN — the first price you could actually pay, not the prior close. We publish the misses too: https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/

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